$44 to $1000 Challenge: Day 9

Well, I was going to get a day like this eventually, everyone does, I just hoped it wouldn’t come so soon just when I had moved up to the 5NL stakes with my bankroll strategy of 15BIs for 5NL. This is what I meant when I said it was a risky strategy. No matter how big your skill edge is, you are occasionally get a day where nothing works out. Outdrawn when all-in, coolers abound, not even your C-bets get through. For those wondering just how bad it was, here are the results for yesterday: Down $41.86. Total $46.24.

 

 

Yeah. You’re not misreading that. I lost 9BI’s at the 5NL level through run bad, although there was a mistake or two near the end of the session (more on that later). Now I’m essentially back to square one. But hey, that’s the joy of short term poker. Literally anything can happen. Time to rebuild, and hopefully I wont have such a disastrous session next time I’m back to 5NL. I suppose I could go back to 20NL BIs for 5NL and 10NL, but I’ve got to stick with the requirements I laid down at the start of the challenge, in theory I should be able to progress quicker with this strategy for the lower levels, it just happened to be that I was on the receiving end of the spectrum in this one session.

 

There were literally no key winning hands in the session which weren’t automatic decisions. There was in actuality only one hand which I managed to get all in and win (a set of nines), there were very few hands I won without showdown, people would call my cbets every single time, regardless of whether I had middle pairs I couldn’t fire two streets with, draws, or complete air. The only time the opponents would fold to my cbets would be when I actually had a strong hand. It was just one of those days where literally everything was going against me. I did manage to get all in with two hands which had both 75% and 80% equity, (A8 on 9c8sAc5d and JJ against 77 preflop) but both of those hands lost. Eventually this took its toll on me. I knew it was time to quit when I played these two hands in short succession:

 

1. 9c9h MP bets .15, CO calls, I squeeze to .62 in the SB, the BB calls and MP/CO folds

Flop – 4h6hQd (pot $1.54) I make a standard c-bet of $1, and the opponent calls. Because the opponent with a passive opponent, and because I was slightly tilted by everyone calling me down every time I make a c-bet, I start to think the opponent could be calling with a bunch of flush draws and 57.

Turn – As (pot $3.54). In my frame of mind I start thinking that this is the perfect scare card and can shove. Now obviously this is flawed thinking. If I’m under the impression that the opponent would be calling with a lot of flush draws, a large proportion of them are with a suited ace, and in actuality the flop was a dry enough board that the opponent is actually calling with a lot of Queens, and because of the nature of the opponent at these stakes, a pair of Queens is unlikely to be worried about the Ace on the turn. Clearly the opponent isn’t going to fold a high enough proportion of his holdings to make it a profitable bluff, and, unsurprisingly, the opponent calls my shove with AK. There is no nine on the river.

 

2. KhQc. I bet in MP to .16. BB 3bets to .50. I call.

Flop – 7hKs2h (pot $1.02). Opponent cbets to .53 and I call.

Turn – 6h (pot $2.08). The opponent bets $1.56 (half my stack of $3.97). At this point there are just so many made flushes and better Kings than my hand, but for some reason I’m so frustrated by the session that I think I can shove my hand, folding out better Kings and potentially hitting a heart on the river if the opponent calls. But obviously this is flawed thinking. The opponent calls (obviously) with a set of sevens, and I hit a King on the river. HURRAH! I have a set! I win. Oh wait. The opponent has a full house. Damn.

 

So obviously, I had to quit at that point. Back to 2NL I go. 

$44 to $1000 Dollar Challenge Day 8

Yes! I did it! I finally did it! I finally got round to writing a blog entry for this challenge. For those who follow me on twitter (or more likely, the people who are linked to this FROM twitter) will know that I keep meaning to write an entry on the blog documenting my $44 to $1000 challenge, but I keeping failing to add to it, whether it be because of a lack of time throughout the day, because of forgetfulness, or sleep. But damn it I’m here now.

Just a quick background update, before ‘day 8’ started I had a grand total of  $66.25, and after I originally said it would take me 70 days to complete this challenge, after only earning $22 it may have seemed like I overstepped the mark a little bit. Granted I was only at the $2 stakes and you cannot earn a huge amount at this level, but really I should be further along than this to keep within the estimated timeframe. I then got to day 8’s session. Which is shown below, along with the all in ev line:

 

As you can see yesterday was an outstanding day and is (so far) my highest earning day, here is a running total of every day I’ve played:

Day 1: Down $4.47. Total $39.34

Day 2: Up $1.64. Total $40.96

Day 3: Up $15.02. Total $55.98

Day 4: Up $7.04. Total $63.02

Day 5: Up $3.28. Total $66.30

Day 6: Down $6.98. Total $59.32

Day 7: Up $6.95. Total $66.25

Day 8: Up $22.85. Total $88.10

It was a day where I picked up lots of Aces and Kings, although surprisingly, out of 2000+ hands I only managed to get five winning hands all in preflop. Most of my profit came from sets and hitting big draws.

Needless to say it was one of those days where there were no real tough spots (although at 2NL that really isn’t a rarity). There were however one spot, shown below:

Hand 1: QcQh

Preflop – Bet UTG (0.06), 3 bet (0.16) by MP, I 4 bet (0.51), MP calls

Flop (8cJdAh – pot $1.05) – I cbet (0.60), repping the ace, and the opponent calls. At this point I intend to shut down on the turn, partly because they could easily have the ace, and if they don’t, then they’ll be unlikely to call a 2nd barrel with worse than QQ.

Turn (7c – pot $2.25) I check, intending to fold to a bet, as far as I’m concerned at this point I don’t want anything more to do with this hand. But surprisingly, the opponent also checks, making me think he’s probably not on an Ace. If he had an ace he would have had to bet, the opponents at 2NL don’t get tricky in spots like this. If they have a hand, they can’t wait to bet it out and gain max value from the hand.

River (Ad) I once again check, if I bet out here I won’t get a call from worse than QQ. The opponent then puts me all in. I just can’t imagine that the opponent would have checked on the turn if they had an ace or better. If they had called a 4 bet preflop, then they wouldn’t have an ace worse than AT, which they would happily put me all in with on the turn board. So putting 2 & 2 together, I decide to call off my stack, thinking the opponent is bluffing, or has a piece of the board which isnt an Ace or T9 (that would have pushed on the turn as well). The opponent had 8d5d, forcing the idea that opponents are likely to bluff with anything at 2NL, meaning you can call with a wide range, even when the board is terrifying.

What this means for the challenge is that I have now met my bankroll requirements for 5NL (15BI for this level, which will be increased after I move to the 10NL levels to help compensate for a potential downswing – 10NL also requires 15BI in my strategy. It may seem hazardous, but I can beat these levels in my sleep and want to move up as fast as possible. I won’t be using 15BI’s for 16NL – refer to my previous blog post for details of my bankroll management requirements) so today’s session should be interesting. Granted its 11:20 as I write this, but I have the day off tomorrow, so I can afford to stay up for a few extra hours. I shall attempt to blog again at some point tomorrow, but I find it difficult to make time for Pointless, let alone a blog.
We shall see.