$44 to $1000 Challenge: Day 9

Well, I was going to get a day like this eventually, everyone does, I just hoped it wouldn’t come so soon just when I had moved up to the 5NL stakes with my bankroll strategy of 15BIs for 5NL. This is what I meant when I said it was a risky strategy. No matter how big your skill edge is, you are occasionally get a day where nothing works out. Outdrawn when all-in, coolers abound, not even your C-bets get through. For those wondering just how bad it was, here are the results for yesterday: Down $41.86. Total $46.24.

 

 

Yeah. You’re not misreading that. I lost 9BI’s at the 5NL level through run bad, although there was a mistake or two near the end of the session (more on that later). Now I’m essentially back to square one. But hey, that’s the joy of short term poker. Literally anything can happen. Time to rebuild, and hopefully I wont have such a disastrous session next time I’m back to 5NL. I suppose I could go back to 20NL BIs for 5NL and 10NL, but I’ve got to stick with the requirements I laid down at the start of the challenge, in theory I should be able to progress quicker with this strategy for the lower levels, it just happened to be that I was on the receiving end of the spectrum in this one session.

 

There were literally no key winning hands in the session which weren’t automatic decisions. There was in actuality only one hand which I managed to get all in and win (a set of nines), there were very few hands I won without showdown, people would call my cbets every single time, regardless of whether I had middle pairs I couldn’t fire two streets with, draws, or complete air. The only time the opponents would fold to my cbets would be when I actually had a strong hand. It was just one of those days where literally everything was going against me. I did manage to get all in with two hands which had both 75% and 80% equity, (A8 on 9c8sAc5d and JJ against 77 preflop) but both of those hands lost. Eventually this took its toll on me. I knew it was time to quit when I played these two hands in short succession:

 

1. 9c9h MP bets .15, CO calls, I squeeze to .62 in the SB, the BB calls and MP/CO folds

Flop – 4h6hQd (pot $1.54) I make a standard c-bet of $1, and the opponent calls. Because the opponent with a passive opponent, and because I was slightly tilted by everyone calling me down every time I make a c-bet, I start to think the opponent could be calling with a bunch of flush draws and 57.

Turn – As (pot $3.54). In my frame of mind I start thinking that this is the perfect scare card and can shove. Now obviously this is flawed thinking. If I’m under the impression that the opponent would be calling with a lot of flush draws, a large proportion of them are with a suited ace, and in actuality the flop was a dry enough board that the opponent is actually calling with a lot of Queens, and because of the nature of the opponent at these stakes, a pair of Queens is unlikely to be worried about the Ace on the turn. Clearly the opponent isn’t going to fold a high enough proportion of his holdings to make it a profitable bluff, and, unsurprisingly, the opponent calls my shove with AK. There is no nine on the river.

 

2. KhQc. I bet in MP to .16. BB 3bets to .50. I call.

Flop – 7hKs2h (pot $1.02). Opponent cbets to .53 and I call.

Turn – 6h (pot $2.08). The opponent bets $1.56 (half my stack of $3.97). At this point there are just so many made flushes and better Kings than my hand, but for some reason I’m so frustrated by the session that I think I can shove my hand, folding out better Kings and potentially hitting a heart on the river if the opponent calls. But obviously this is flawed thinking. The opponent calls (obviously) with a set of sevens, and I hit a King on the river. HURRAH! I have a set! I win. Oh wait. The opponent has a full house. Damn.

 

So obviously, I had to quit at that point. Back to 2NL I go. 

$44 to $1000 Dollar Challenge Day 8

Yes! I did it! I finally did it! I finally got round to writing a blog entry for this challenge. For those who follow me on twitter (or more likely, the people who are linked to this FROM twitter) will know that I keep meaning to write an entry on the blog documenting my $44 to $1000 challenge, but I keeping failing to add to it, whether it be because of a lack of time throughout the day, because of forgetfulness, or sleep. But damn it I’m here now.

Just a quick background update, before ‘day 8’ started I had a grand total of  $66.25, and after I originally said it would take me 70 days to complete this challenge, after only earning $22 it may have seemed like I overstepped the mark a little bit. Granted I was only at the $2 stakes and you cannot earn a huge amount at this level, but really I should be further along than this to keep within the estimated timeframe. I then got to day 8’s session. Which is shown below, along with the all in ev line:

 

As you can see yesterday was an outstanding day and is (so far) my highest earning day, here is a running total of every day I’ve played:

Day 1: Down $4.47. Total $39.34

Day 2: Up $1.64. Total $40.96

Day 3: Up $15.02. Total $55.98

Day 4: Up $7.04. Total $63.02

Day 5: Up $3.28. Total $66.30

Day 6: Down $6.98. Total $59.32

Day 7: Up $6.95. Total $66.25

Day 8: Up $22.85. Total $88.10

It was a day where I picked up lots of Aces and Kings, although surprisingly, out of 2000+ hands I only managed to get five winning hands all in preflop. Most of my profit came from sets and hitting big draws.

Needless to say it was one of those days where there were no real tough spots (although at 2NL that really isn’t a rarity). There were however one spot, shown below:

Hand 1: QcQh

Preflop – Bet UTG (0.06), 3 bet (0.16) by MP, I 4 bet (0.51), MP calls

Flop (8cJdAh – pot $1.05) – I cbet (0.60), repping the ace, and the opponent calls. At this point I intend to shut down on the turn, partly because they could easily have the ace, and if they don’t, then they’ll be unlikely to call a 2nd barrel with worse than QQ.

Turn (7c – pot $2.25) I check, intending to fold to a bet, as far as I’m concerned at this point I don’t want anything more to do with this hand. But surprisingly, the opponent also checks, making me think he’s probably not on an Ace. If he had an ace he would have had to bet, the opponents at 2NL don’t get tricky in spots like this. If they have a hand, they can’t wait to bet it out and gain max value from the hand.

River (Ad) I once again check, if I bet out here I won’t get a call from worse than QQ. The opponent then puts me all in. I just can’t imagine that the opponent would have checked on the turn if they had an ace or better. If they had called a 4 bet preflop, then they wouldn’t have an ace worse than AT, which they would happily put me all in with on the turn board. So putting 2 & 2 together, I decide to call off my stack, thinking the opponent is bluffing, or has a piece of the board which isnt an Ace or T9 (that would have pushed on the turn as well). The opponent had 8d5d, forcing the idea that opponents are likely to bluff with anything at 2NL, meaning you can call with a wide range, even when the board is terrifying.

What this means for the challenge is that I have now met my bankroll requirements for 5NL (15BI for this level, which will be increased after I move to the 10NL levels to help compensate for a potential downswing – 10NL also requires 15BI in my strategy. It may seem hazardous, but I can beat these levels in my sleep and want to move up as fast as possible. I won’t be using 15BI’s for 16NL – refer to my previous blog post for details of my bankroll management requirements) so today’s session should be interesting. Granted its 11:20 as I write this, but I have the day off tomorrow, so I can afford to stay up for a few extra hours. I shall attempt to blog again at some point tomorrow, but I find it difficult to make time for Pointless, let alone a blog.
We shall see.

Poker, the summer of discontent and the $44 to $1000 challenge.

My first exposure to poker was watching the WSOP on TV in Vegas back in 2004. Obviously I was 13 at the time so I couldn’t play in the casino (they wouldn’t even allow me watch any action for any game on the casino floor, I had to be moved along almost immediately) but the game fascinated me and I would play 5 card draw for matchsticks any chance I got. I didn’t have a clue what I was doing, but it captivated me. Eventually, my interest in the game petered out as I found other things to do with my time. Fast forward 4 years and late one night I watched an episode of the EPT and my fascination with the game came back. When  I was 18 I took the plunge and deposited a small amount online. Now let me just say I did not become one of those players who deposited $50 and went on to win millions almost instantly, it was 2008. That era of the online game had gone. I was essentially a flat-lining player, break even, but losing to the rake. I then started to concentrate on the game, and over the years I slowly got better and better.

 

Fast forward to April this year. I’m beating the $25 cash games and beginning to dip my feet in the $50 limits. But I had to take time off to finish my dissertation and revise for my final exams. Poker wise, I was feeling great and playing great. Things were going so well that I felt that after I finished university I could work hard over the summer on my game, and potentially play it for a living, or at the very least open up the possibility of playing for a living.

So the time came, I had finished my exams, celebrated the end of university with the uni summer ball, enjoyed the last few weeks I would spend with my flatmates in Bournemouth, (playing COD, going to the cinema and the beach) and just generally chilled and enjoyed a few weeks of doing nothing.

 

At the same time I managed to qualify for a small poker tournament in Brighton (the Poker Player UK Tour, for those who don’t like mystery). Needless to say I was pretty excited for this and saw it as a great opportunity. When the day of the tournament came, I wandered into the G Casino,  made sure my name was on the starting list (no problem there), sat down at one of the tournament tables and found a complimentary copy of PokerPlayer magazine; the same issue I had bought the week before (the start of my downswing). Then I surveyed the room and saw two stalwarts of the UK professional scene: Simon Hemsworth and Ross Jarvis. Naturally, this had the same impact on me as an 8 year old England fan meeting Wayne Rooney, I got extremely excited/nervous and just kept out of the way.

About an hour later, the tournament began. 75 runners in total, and over £2000 for first. Hours passed, I was slowly chipping up, but always came second best in big hands meaning I never really managed to attack the leaderboard, but I was making solid reads, and my timing was perfect, so things were going fine. I was above average chips, which is the best one can hope. If you’re always above the average stack, then you are guaranteed to win (in theory – don’t hold me to that).

Eventually, it got down to 27 players. I picked up QT. I bet, and an opponent in the blinds called. The flop came QQ9. Trips, very nice. The opponent checked, I bet and the opponent called. The turn brings a 9. Bingo. A full house! Not just any full house, the nut full house! The opponent checks again and I bet. The opponent then shoves, putting me all in. FINALLY! When I call this I’m going to be in the top 5 chip counts at least. Then I can really make a play for the final table and begin to dominate. So I snap call…

You know when you have a near death experience, and everything goes in slow motion? The following occurrence was not too dissimilar to that. It turns out that the opponent called preflop with a pair of nines. Meaning that he had quad nines, and that was me out of the tournament.

Considering I had booked the train back home on the Monday, it meant that I had the following day to explore Brighton, and after I had spent the day mooching around, I decided to spend the evening playing a £10 turbo back at the casino. I got off to a great start, doubled up in the first level and stayed within contention of winning the entire tournament throughout. It then got to the bubble, which seemed to last an age. The bubble lasted so long that in the end, everyone was very evenly stacked, and would you believe it, I lost a flip to bust out as the bubble boy.

 

Despite the obvious disappointment I thoroughly enjoyed that weekend, and it cemented the idea that this is something I would love to try to do for a living, especially considering the job market is terrible at the moment, with no one being able to find a job.

When I got home, I shrugged off the bad luck that had befallen me, thinking that there is a high amount of variance in tournament play, and that two tournaments is nowhere near a big enough sample size to rely on a profit. Besides, I’m a cash game player, that’s where all the real money is. Allegedly.

 

So I got back, started playing 8 tables for 8 hours a day, reviewing each and every session, posting in forums, watching training videos, exercising, doing everything I could to try and make it work. But annoyingly, in the short term, variance can produce wildly different results in the bankrolls of similarly skilled players, and it was my turn for the doomswitch, and this time, it was a severe doomswitch.

 

After 65,000 hands, despite being outdrawn and coolered time and time again, I had only lost about $40, which isn’t even two buy ins, so naturally I was feeling pretty good about myself. But then something clicked. Even though I didn’t feel any differently at first, subconsciously I began to tilt, I didn’t even know I was tilting until about the 82,000 hand mark. Then things got bad. I had been on downswings before, but never like this, and when I realised I was beginning to tilt things just got worse. I should have taken time off, but I didn’t want to feel like I was doing nothing with my time. I started playing limits I shouldn’t have, and getting annoyed extremely easily. Inevitably, I went bust.

 

Obviously I couldn’t keep playing with no money (I had spent everything I earned online at university, I supposed I could have saved up, but then you only go to university once in your life – unless you decide to get a second degree, you fool) so I had to stop playing and take a break (which is what I needed anyway, you can’t exactly play profitably when on life tilt) and try to find a job. Obviously I have been unable to secure a job which uses my degree, but I’ve managed to get a part time job which has given me a little bit of cash to tide me over for the time being.

Obviously now I have a bit of money, I can start to play poker again, and all the tilt has definitely gone from my system. It feels good to play without any tension again.

 

This brings me on nicely to the $44 to $1000 dollar challenge. The main reason I decided to undertake this is because I want to get back to the level I was playing at before the downswing, and by taking this challenge it will force me to play seriously without me whittling away any money needlessly. 

Previously I would use a 20BI strategy for each level and obviously 20BI was a very aggressive bankroll strategy, which probably helps to explain why the downswing busted my previous roll. Clearly I can’t afford to keep using the same strategy, as eventually I will suffer a downswing as severe as the one I had over the summer, but then saying that I don’t want to stay at the 2NL-16NL levels for longer than necessary, so I have implemented a unique strategy to get me through the lower levels as quickly and as safely as possible:

 

I am going to use a progressive strategy which I will change over time, depending on what my bankroll is. Below is the first level of the strategy:

5NL – 15BI   

10NL – 15BI   

16NL – 20BI   

25NL – 20BI   

50NL – 25BI   

100NL – 30BI  

200NL – 40BI

My thinking behind this strategy is that each level will get tougher, so I will need a bigger bankroll to sustain the better play, but then once I move up to the new level, I will increase the buy ins required for the previous level in the following pattern:

15BI / 20BI / 25BI / 30BI / 40BI / 50BI etc

So for instance, to play at 5NL I will need an original bankroll of $75, and to move up to 10NL I will need a bankroll of $150. Once I’ve moved up to 10NL I will increase the buy in required for 5NL to 20BI, so if I then happen to go on a downswing and move down to $95 I will be required to move back down to 2NL. This is to help move my bankroll up to a minimum of 50BI for each limit over time, which will ensure that I never go bust again.

 

So that’s my history in the game, and the requirements of the challenge. Each day I will update my results, including a graph and key hands. As it stands I have completed 5 days of this challenge and as it stands I have a bankroll of $66.30. 

Time to see how this challenge pans out. I am expecting it to take an optimistic 70 days. Anyone willing to take an over or under on this? There may be a cash prize for those who get it right* and follow me**

 

*Do not hold me to this.

**Please follow my blog.

Being a NewsJacker

Since six weeks ago, I have been taking part in writing sketches and one-liners for the radio 4 extra show NewsJack in the hope that something I write may be transmitted on national radio. As this was my first attempt at writing 3 topical sketches a week, every week, it was good news to learn that something I wrote was recorded but sadly edited out. But looking back at my scripts, even though there has been a big improvement from week one, I still believe I have a lot of work to do to make them flow easier and to maintain the level of humour throughout.

“But of course you do, you haven’t made it into any final edits yet” I hear you cry. Well, yes, uh. I can’t really dispute that.

Shhh.

All in all though, it’s a fantastic way to get your feet wet in the whole sketch writing trade, even though the chances of getting anything on are very small (I think I read somewhere they can get upwards of 600 individual entries a week, although I could be just talking hyperbole) it forces you to write to a strict deadline and when the show comes around, if you listen to the show (without breaking down in tears that one of your sketches didn’t make it – don’t worry, we’ve all done it. We have haven’t we guys? Guys? Come on. Back me up here.) you can pick up so many handy tips for the best way to write for radio comedy, and can see what people are doing which you aren’t.

Of course the series isn’t over yet. I sent in my last sketches this morning after an all night procrastination session. NFL is my kryptonite. GO 49ers!

Of course now in my world of scripting is a 12-part satire I am attempting to write. The first episode is basically down, it’s just a case of continuous editing until I’m happy to send it off to some agents.

Well. Why shouldn’t I?

NewsJack Series 9: Episode 5 reject

Invariably, when submitting sketches to open door sketch shows you are going to have the vast majority of sketches rejected (especially when the company receives 100s a week). Below is one of those sketches, submitted to a topical news show and is about the possibility of another horse meat scandal in the UK, which was announced last week:

Horse Head Revisited:

JUSTIN: Fears were spread this week when the National Audit Office reported that the government changes regarding the weakening of food controls could potentially lead to another horsemeat scandal. My god, they won’t let this go will they? They really are flogging this like a dead horse.

FX: KLAXON GOES OFF

NJ PRESENTER: Justin! You set off the horsemeat klaxon. What did we tell you?

JUSTIN: But its topical, sort of, surely that’s as good a time as any to make horsemeat jokes.

NJ PRESENTER: Yes but no one can take them anymore, the UK and Twitter were so swamped by them that the BBC, and indeed all social media introduced a law to ban all of these jokes from ever being made in public again, under penalty of death.

JUSTIN: But, this goes out on the radio tomorrow, oh god, I don’t want to die!

NJ PRESENTER: Quick! Onto the next topic before anyone notices!

JUSTIN: Good idea! In other news, John McCririck’s age discrimination claim has heated up, and here to talk about his experience is the man himself. John, how has the tribunal gone for you?

JOHN MCCRIRICK: Well, I think it’s absolutely disgraceful that it even got to this position. Surely the grand old sport of horse racing shouldn’t be influenced by something like age. But, I had the last laugh, I felt so commanding in that courtroom, I really made mincemeat out of the network.

JUSTIN: Horse Racing? Mincemeat? Oh god! We can’t have this! Sorry John, were going to have to cut this interview off.

What else do we have? Um. Oh yes. A horse ran amok this week in a Birmingham hotel, knocking over plants and kicking dents in the wall, the police have noted that the creature was found to be horsing around. Ahaha see. Nothing to worry about. No food-based puns there.

NJ PRESENTER: Um, Justin? That horse had to be put down. It’s not a laughing matter.

JUSTIN: Shhh! We’ve got to stay away from the horse scandals!

What else do we have? Horse gets £5.25 million at auction, 6 people arrested in illegal horse-racing ring. Aren’t there any stories which don’t concern horses?

NJ VOICE-OVER: Warning: NewsJack may contain up to 60% horsejokes.

FX: HORSEMEAT KLAXON GOES OFF. THE STUDIO SOUNDS LIKE IT HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY

JUSTIN: Oh great. Now our shows been put down. SHUT DOWN! I mean shut down.

Bugger.

Debut post!

This is entirely new to me, so I’m not exactly sure on the correct etiquette, but here we go:

“Hello, pleased to meet you, *shakes hand* the weathers terrible today isn’t it”

There, hopefully that wasn’t too awkward for you.

So about me, I’m a 22 year old graduate, not completely sure where to go in my life besides from a few pipe dreams: (comedy, poker, music – but only if I can find people who are into modern progressive rock, which to be fair, in Devon, isn’t likely to happen – I say that living within ten minutes of where Muse formed)

There are a couple of degree related jobs which I have found interesting, but never get an interview in any of them, so until I get a job in something that interests me, I will be using this blog to upload sketches (which I hope will get me contacts within the industry and like minded people), poker updates (I am currently undertaking a 44 to 1000 dollar challenge) and album reviews, and possibly some covers if I can be bothered to record myself on the guitar, although if people request a song I will be obliged to make a video.

Anyway that’s my life summed up in two paragraphs, (oh god, only two?) how about we go grab a red berry muffin and a Darjeeling…